USAID's termination praised by Rubio, research suggests that its discontinuation could potentially lead to 14 million deaths within the next five years.

USAID's termination praised by Rubio, research suggests that its discontinuation could potentially lead to 14 million deaths within the next five years.

The US Agency for International Development (USAID) is set to cease foreign assistance operations as of July 1st, a move that has raised concerns about global health and humanitarian threats. According to studies by The Lancet and other public health analysts, the dissolution or severe downsizing of USAID could have catastrophic consequences worldwide.

Key projected consequences include rising mortality rates, weakened partner governments, increased risk of future pandemics, and the termination of approximately 83% of USAID programs. The end of USAID could lead to over 14 million additional deaths by 2030, with nearly a third of those deaths being among children under the age of 5.

The Trump Administration's new approach to foreign assistance, led by the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), prioritizes trade over aid, opportunity over dependency, and investment over assistance. The Administration intends to gauge the success of US assistance work through new metrics such as bilateral engagement, co-investment, trade deals, compacts, and agreements.

Despite these changes, the US Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, has assured that critical programs such as the President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR) will continue, albeit in a "more efficient" and "more impactful" manner. The official intends to release a long-term comprehensive roadmap in the coming weeks and months about what they plan to do with PEPFAR.

However, concerns persist about the potential consequences of the USAID's swift dismantlement and sudden freeze on foreign assistance. Aid groups have stated that these actions have already had devastating consequences, particularly in areas such as infectious disease control, maternal and child health, and nutrition.

The senior State Department official downplayed the Lancet's findings, stating that a lot of the studies are based on incorrect assumptions about what Secretary Rubio intends to do. Nevertheless, the official acknowledged that some USAID personnel had been hired at the State Department to ensure continuity in certain programs.

The Lancet study found that USAID funding was most likely to reduce mortality related to HIV/AIDS, followed by malaria. Strong associations were also found with tropical diseases, diarrhoeal disease, nutritional deficiencies, lower respiratory infections, maternal mortality, and tuberculosis.

In 2023, 60% of PEPFAR's bilateral HIV assistance was obligated and implemented by USAID. The official repeatedly raised the example of PEPFAR, emphasizing that their work would continue, despite the end of USAID.

In conclusion, the end or drastic reduction of USAID under the Trump Administration could create a vacuum in international health and development assistance, undermining decades of progress on global health security, increasing vulnerabilities in partner countries, and ultimately feeding back risks to US national security and global stability. These findings are consistent with concerns expressed in The Lancet and other public health analyses, emphasizing that cutting foreign aid agencies like USAID jeopardizes essential health programs and could have devastating longer-term consequences worldwide.

1. The US Agency for International Development (USAID) is departing from foreign assistance operations, sparking apprehension about global health and humanitarian hazards.
2. The Lancet and other public health experts warn that the USAID's cessation or severe scaling down could result in catastrophic outcomes globally.
3. Projected consequences involve increased mortality rates, weakened partner governments, elevated pandemic risks, and the cancellation of about 83% of USAID programs.
4. By 2030, up to 14 million extra deaths could occur as a result, with around one-third of those being children under five years old.
5. The Trump Administration's new foreign assistance strategy, managed by the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), emphasizes trade over aid, opportunity over dependency, and investment over assistance.
6. The Administration intends to assess the success of US aid work using new metrics such as bilateral engagement, co-investment, trade deals, compacts, and agreements.
7. However, Secretary of State Marco Rubio has vowed that essential programs like the President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR) will persist, albeit in a more streamlined and impactful fashion.
8. The official plans to divulge a long-term comprehensive roadmap for PEPFAR in the upcoming weeks and months, outlining their intentions.
9. Despite these assurances, questions remain about the possible effects of USAID's swift disintegration and sudden halt on foreign assistance.
10. Aid groups contend that these actions have already had catastrophic implications, particularly in areas such as infectious disease control, maternal and child health, and nutrition.
11. The senior State Department official dismissed the Lancet's findings, attributing them to inaccurate assumptions about Secretary Rubio's plans.
12. Nevertheless, the official admitted that some USAID personnel had been employed at the State Department to ensure the continuity of certain programs.
13. According to the Lancet study, USAID funding has the potential to minimize mortality related to HIV/AIDS, malaria, tropical diseases, diarrheal disease, nutritional deficiencies, lower respiratory infections, maternal mortality, and tuberculosis.
14. In 2023, PEPFAR's bilateral HIV assistance constituted 60% of the obligated and implemented aid, which was facilitated by USAID.
15. The official frequently highlighted PEPFAR as an example, asserting that their work would proceed, unlike USAID.
16. In essence, the termination or significant reduction of USAID under the Trump Administration could create a void in international health and development assistance, thwarting decades of progress on global health security, increasing vulnerabilities in partner countries, and eventually jeopardizing US national security and global stability.
17. These findings correlate with concerns voiced in The Lancet and other public health analyses, underscoring that curtailing foreign aid initiatives like USAID imperils essential health programs and may have devastating long-term consequences worldwide.
18. In light of these developments, advocacy for rational and sustainable health and development policies becomes increasingly crucial, especially with regards to the role of USAID, PEPFAR, and other agencies in addressing chronic diseases, mental health, skin care, and other health and wellness concerns.
19. Furthermore, further discussions and strategies should revolve around weight management, cardiovascular health, eye health, hearing, respiratory conditions, digestive health, neurological disorders, skin conditions, and various aspects of men's and women's health, including reproductive health and sexual health, in the context of policy and legislation, education and self-development, personal growth, career development, job search, and general news.

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