The Evolution of Drones: A Matter of Progression, Not Transformation
In the ongoing conflict in northern Iraq, Turkey has been expanding its network of roads and combat outposts, with the construction of more bases intended to establish a barrier between its border and PKK safe havens. This operation, which is currently underway, has seen the Turks build at least fifty miles of new roads in the last year, connecting these bases to one another.
The use of drones in this conflict has been prevalent, with both sides employing these unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) for observation and strike purposes. Turkish military outposts in the region have been the target of drone attacks, as evidenced by videos showing fixed-wing drones bombing Turkish foot patrols.
The Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), the primary adversary in this conflict, has also been using drones to observe and strike. Reports suggest that PKK fighters have overrun listening posts or elements of patrols, and breached the perimeter of bases. The PKK has even claimed to have downed at least one Turkish drone using man-portable surface-to-air missiles.
On the other hand, Turkey has used drones extensively in recent conflicts, such as the Nagorno-Karabakh war. Drones are seen as a force multiplier, favouring a determined counterinsurgent. They offer an advantage in terms of cost, as they are less expensive than manned aircraft, and can be operated remotely, reducing the risk to human life.
However, the impact of drones on irregular warfare is not a settled question. Some argue that drone proliferation favors insurgents and terrorists, as they can acquire and use these technologies more easily than state actors. Conversely, others see drones as having revolutionary potential in irregular warfare, offering a decisive edge to counterinsurgents.
The US Army chief of staff has gone as far as to refer to drones as the new improvised explosive device. This sentiment is echoed by Matthew Cancian, a PhD candidate at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, who has written extensively on the subject. Cancian notes that Turkey's most recent invasion of northern Iraq to fight the PKK insurgency involves drones, with Turkish soldiers patrolling through tunnel complexes used by the PKK, similar to American soldiers in Afghanistan.
In May, the Turkish minister of national defense visited one such base, posting pictures of sandbags overlooking mountains on social media. This operation, while ongoing, serves as a testament to the increasing role of drones in modern conflict, and the need for a nuanced understanding of their impact on irregular warfare.
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