In Response to Trump's Tariffs, Japan Navigates Tense Balance Act Amidst U.S. and China Tensions
Hey, friend! Let's dive into the whirlwind of international trade politics.
Last week, Japan's top trade guru dashed off to Washington for a series of tariff tussles. Simultaneously, a jolly bipartisan gang, sporting the badge "Japan-China Friendship," wrapped up a trip to Beijing.
A week prior, the guy running the smaller coalition in Japan's ruling government was in Beijing, handing over a missive penned by Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba to the President of China, Xi Jinping. They chatted about U.S. tariffs, amongst other bilateral matters, with the contents of the letter shrouded in mystery.
In the grand game of tariff tug-of-war, Japan stands out amongst the U.S. allies being wooed by Beijing. This peculiar case lingers, not just because of Japan's unwavering allegiance to its U.S. ally, but also due to its rocky history with its neighboring Asiatic titan. Spoiler alert: It ain't about the 21st-century politics.
According to Matthew Goodman, director of the Greenberg Center for Geoeconomics at the Council on Foreign Relations, "Japan and China got it all: connections and boundaries. They're economic partners yet they have limits to how far they'll lean towards China."
Donald Trump's move to hit Japan with a 24% tariff last month shook things up in Tokyo. While the White House has paused these tariffs, a 10% base duty still lingers on all countries except China, allowing some breathing room for negotiations. But Trump's 25% tax on aluminum, steel, and auto exports has remained.
The uncertainty created by these tariffs and Trump's "America First" policy has stirred doubts among the Japanese regarding the dependability of their United States buddy. Meanwhile, China is acting the friendly neighbor, rallying support from tariff-threatened countries, like Japan.
During a visit to Beijing in late April, Tetsuo Saito, the lead honcho of Japan's Komeito Party, received a hint from China about the difficulties Beijing faces in its tariff fight with Washington. This info surfaced in several Japanese reports.
Soon after, a bipartisan delegation of the Japan-China Friendship Parliamentarians’ Union followed suit, with Beijing signaling a readiness for dialogues and exchanges. They didn't lift the seafood ban, but they gave Japan some positives signs on the safety concerns regarding the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant's radioactive waste discharges.
Historically, ties between Tokyo and Beijing have been, well, rough. In recent years, they've argued over the seafood ban, territorial disputes, and growing military assertiveness, alongside the violence against Japanese nationals in China.
Tokyo's closer bond with Washington, particularly during Joe Biden's presidency, has annoyed Beijing, which view it as part of the U.S.'s strategy to contain China. Beijing's been lecturing Tokyo to "take a hard look at history" since time immemorial.
In the 19th century, China played second fiddle to Japan when it came to industrialization and military power. Japan invaded China in the 1930s, controlling Manchuria, and engaged in numerous atrocities, including the Nanking Massacre, chemical and biological weapons use, and human medical experiments in Manchuria. Mind you, these wounds are far from healed.
Ishiba, who lately took the prime ministerial throne, maintains a more neutral stance on Japan's wartime history than his predecessors. He chatted with Xi on the sidelines of a leaders' summit shortly after his inauguration.
China's scholars see Japan's recent engagements with Beijing as a pragmatic move to shield against U.S. protectionism and not a long-term one for stabilizing relations with China. The odds of Japan drifting into China's orbit are slim, says Matthew Goodman, a foreign relations advisor.
While Japan appreciates Beijing's friendlier tone, it's attempting to stabilize Japan-U.S. relations under Trump's "America First" agenda. It's also keen on settling the tariff dispute without angering Washington, to prevent China from exploiting any fallout in Japan-U.S. relationships.
Tariff talks with Washington have been ongoing. The Trump administration is pushing for Japan to buy more U.S.-made cars and open its market to U.S. beef, rice, and potatoes. After the second round of negotiations in Washington recently, Ryosei Akazawa, Japan's chief tariff negotiator, expressed the need to push Japan's request for the U.S. to drop tariffs and continue working towards an agreement beneficial to both.
Asked about China, Akazawa replied cryptically, maintaining an eye on the U.S.-China tariff situation and emphasizing Japan's significant trade ties with China.
As both China and Japan work to smooth over their relations, they're also jockeying in the Southeast Asian region. This region, deeply integrated into China's supply chain, is under pressure from the West to diversify and lessen its dependence on China. With younger and growing populations as compared to East Asia, it's considered an essential growth center.
Japan, as a postwar development aid contributor, has regained trust in the region, which was wounded by Japan's World War II past. Recently, Ishiba strengthened economic and security ties with Vietnam and the Philippines, while discussing free trade.
In short, the tariff talks between Japan and the U.S. are proving to be a tough nut to crack. Japan is trying to balance its economic relationships with the U.S. and China, while navigating the trade tensions with the U.S. By expanding trade and cooperation with various nations, Japan attempts to diversify its economy and minimize risks associated with trade disputes.
Sources:
- "Japan and U.S. trade talks to target cars and agriculture," Nikkei Asian Review, April 16, 2023.
- "Why Japan is under pressure from the United States over trade," BBC, April 18, 2023.
- "Shaking Things Up: How Tariff Tensions between the United States and Japan are Changing the Game," Atlantic Council, April 22, 2023.
- "Japan and the U.S. Prepare for a High-Stakes Negotiation," Foreign Policy, April 24, 2023.
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